Analyzing the External Debt and Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Selected Asian Countries


  • Muhammad Muzammil Asghar
  • Rafia Sultana
  • Sami Ullah
  • Muhammad Arshad


External Debt, Exports, Economic Growth, Panel ARDL, Asia


This study analyzes external debt and exports-led growth hypothesis in selected Asian countries using the panel dataset from 2003 to 2020. For data estimation, unit root analysis, Pedroni test of cointegration, and panel ARDL model are used. The outcomes reveal that external debt, exports, gross capital formation, and labor force are directly associated to the economic growth, while debt servicing is adversely and significantly related to the economic growth in Asian countries. The variable inflation rate turns out to be negative but statistically insignificant. Granger causality analysis found a unidirectional causality between external debt and economic growth and a unidirectional causality between gross capital formation and economic growth. It is concluded that external debt and exports are substantially impacting the economic growth of Asian countries; therefore, it is suggested that external debt should be utilized to improve national well-being and export promotion techniques should be encouraged, such as export subsidies and tax-free business zones to promote production.




How to Cite

Muhammad Muzammil Asghar, Rafia Sultana, Sami Ullah, & Muhammad Arshad. (2024). Analyzing the External Debt and Exports-Led Growth Hypothesis in Selected Asian Countries. Zakariya Journal of Social Science, 2(2), 43–55. Retrieved from