AI-Amplified Cyber Warfare and Critical Infrastructure Resilience in the Gulf Cooperation Council: An Evidence-Based Analytical Review, 2021-2025

Abstract

This study conducts an original analytical review of AI-enabled cyber warfare and critical infrastructure resilience in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region for the period of 2021-2025 based on the available evidence. The aim is to explore the effect of all these on the cyber risk landscape in the region and their interaction to form the new landscape. The 45 sources included in the sample have been coded by a clear evidence matrix, using academic and standards sources. The method is a structured review, coding and weighing of variables, and descriptive analysis and regression analysis simulating. The main factors are the intensity of the attacks, ransomware development, vulnerabilities in the supply chain, social media vulnerabilities, critical infrastructure vulnerabilities, development of defence capabilities, and coordination of policies. The expected results are that attack pressure increased from 49 to 84 on a 0-100 scale, and defence readiness increased from 42 to 68, resulting in a continuous resilience gap of 16 points by 2025. The innovation is that the model takes a sector-level approach, combines cognitive cyber operations, AI-enabled offensive acceleration, and resilience to cyber threats at a regional level, and is applicable across the GCC region, rather than focusing on cyber warfare, cybercrime, and cybergovernance. The implications include the importance of AI-aware threat intelligence, zero-trust implementation, regional incident sharing, supply chain assurance, harmonised regulation of critical infrastructure, and improved verification, all aimed at combating the threats posed by synthetic identity and executive impersonation.